The impact of social and demographic changes on transport demand in Europe in the year 2030

摘要

In the railway context, it is vital to be able to think several decades ahead. It takes about ten years, for example, for new rolling stock to be commissioned and the life of the resulting stock will be an average of 30 years. It is therefore necessary to try to foresee transport demand 30 to 40 years from now. Demographics is a science that is therefore crucial to future planning and, given the inertia in demographic phenomena, it is possible to form a fair idea of the situation in 2030 by working from the indicators valid in 2000.