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Hurricanes And Typhoons: From The Field Records To The Forecast

机译:飓风和台风:从实地记录到预报

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The hurricane season of 2005 in the Gulf Coast of the United States was very active, while 2006 was very calm. Burma was hit in May 2008 by a category 3 storm: Cyclone Nargis. Despite its moderate size in comparison to the devastating 2005 Hurricane Katrina, Cyclone Nargis caused extensive damage and a very large death toll. The disaster was made especially acute owing to the poverty of the country and the political leaders with priorities other than aid. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a review of the science of past great storms (also including hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones) and their impact on humans. It is imperative for improved preparedness to future events. Such an effort is really timely as a controversy is ongoing on the nature of the impact of global warming on the frequency and the magnitude of hurricanes worldwide. In order to obtain a longer record than the instrumental one, a combination of historical sources and geological sequences can be tackled. Despite their limitations, both bring their own type of information. The impact of natural hazards on past ecosystems and societies as well as the ways these societies recovered should be an integral part of any future research (Leroy, 2006a).
机译:2005年美国墨西哥湾沿岸的飓风季节非常活跃,而2006年则非常平静。缅甸在2008年5月遭受三级风暴:纳吉斯飓风袭击。尽管与2005年毁灭性的卡特里娜飓风相比,它的规模不大,但纳吉斯飓风造成了广泛的破坏,并造成了巨大的人员伤亡。由于该国的贫穷和政治领导人除援助外还有其他优先事项,使这场灾难特别严重。因此,迫切需要对过去的强风暴(还包括飓风,台风,热带气旋)及其对人的影响的科学进行审查。必须改进对未来事件的准备。这样的努力确实是及时的,因为有关全球变暖对全球飓风发生频率和规模的影响的性质仍在争论中。为了获得比仪器记录更长的记录,可以解决历史资源和地质序列的组合问题。尽管有局限性,但两者都带来了自己的信息类型。自然灾害对过去的生态系统和社会的影响,以及这些社会的恢复方式,应该成为任何未来研究不可或缺的一部分(Leroy,2006a)。

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