The October 29, 2018 storm in Northern Italy - An exceptional event and its modeling

摘要

On October 29, 2018 a very severe storm affected Northern Italy, including the Adriatic Sea. The ensuing surge and wave conditions at and in front of Venice stand at the extreme tail of the respective historical return period distributions. The large set of available measured data, at the coast and at the offshore oceanographic tower, coupled with detailed numerical simulations, allows a keen analysis of the storm, its predictability and in particular of the ensuing enhanced coastal processes. These include the coastal set-up, the input information for tidal prediction in Venice, the documented passage of an atmospheric cold front and, using the local tidal data, the derived possibility of estimating the surface wind stress, the evidence of reflected waves from the coast and the associated seismometers signal 40 km inland. The highest crest and wave heights measured at the tower are beyond what is suggested by non-linear statistics. The relative out-of-scale magnitude of the three major storms since 1966 suggests the possibility that they belong to a self-standing family of events.