Reconstruction and analysis of time series of ENSO for the last 500 years

摘要

This paper reports the classification of ENSO into seven categories according to annual (March to February of next year) mean SST of Nino 3 4 and composite index (AI) for the period of 1861-2000. Categories + 3, + 2, and + 1 denote very strong, strongand weak warm episodes (E), -3, -2, and - 1 mean very strong, strong and weak cold episodes ( A). Absolute SST anomalies are about 1 5°C , 1 0 °C and 0, 5 °C lespectively for the categories 3, 2, and 1 (or - 3, - 2, and - 1). The normal years are expressed as category 0 Annual categories of ENSO are estimated on the basis of proxy data from AD 1501 to 1860. And a series of ENSO category is established for the period of 1501 - 2000 in conjunction with the observational data Comparison of proxy data with observations for 1874 - 1973 indicates that about 80 % of the El Nino years and La Nina years can be reconstructed from proxy data, and the reliability of the reconstruction is verified Analysis of the power spectrum of the reconstructed ENSO seriesshows significant peaks at QBO, 3 - 4a (year), 5 - 6a, and 10a period, the former three are in accordance with the observations for the last 100 years or mole. Studies on long term variability of ENSO indicates that ENSO frequency is relatively stationary during the last 500 years, including the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1550-1850) and Modern Warming Period (the 20th century). However, the frequency of E is a little higher in the 20th century and that of A is somewhat higher during the LIA.