Let E be a modular elliptic curve over Q, without complex multiplication; let p be a prime number where E has good ordinary reduction; and let F_∞ be the field obtained by adjoining to Q all p-power division points on E. Write G_∞ for the Galois group of F∞ over Q. Assume that the complex L-series of E over Q does not vanish at s = 1. If p≥ 5, we make a precise conjecture about the value of the G_∞-Euler characteristic of the Selmer group of E over F_∞. If one makes a standard conjecture about the behavior of this Selmer group as a module over the Iwasawa algebra, we are able to prove our conjecture. The crucial local calculations in the proof depend on recent joint work of the first author with R. Greenberg.
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