時系列的な建物被害床面積予測とその環境負荷の評価: 巨大地震被害予測スキームを用いた時系列被害予測とその環境負荷評価への応用に関する研究　その2

摘要

We hypothesized that the scale of the predicted Nankai Earthquake will increase gradually year by year as the time from the last occurrence in December 1946 lengthens, and then we estimated strong ground motions chronologically from 2009 to 2060 for the western Japan. Next, we input the derived chronological strong motions into nonlinear building models and estimated building damage rates for different structure types and numbers of floors. At the same time, we estimated the areas and existing ratios of different building types in the subject regions chronologically, and we conducted "evolutional building damage predictions" for the period from 2009 to 2060 using these statistical data and the derived chronological damage rates. Finally, based on the calculated damaged building areas, we comprehensively calculated the amount of CO_2 emissions from construction waste and the resources and energy necessary to restore those damaged buildings, making dear the extent of the environmental loads of the predicted Nankai earthquake scenarios in comparison with the CO_2 target values set by the Kyoto Protocol of COP3.%本研究では、南海地震を例として、地震規模と建物床面積が時間rn的に変化する新たに提案した時間依存被害予測モデルと地震規模がrn変化せず建物床面積だけが時系列で変化する地震規模不変モデル、rn地震規模の変化は考慮するが建物床面積が変化しない建物ストックrn不変モデルによる大破建物床面積を評価して、それらの差を明らかrnにした。また時系列被害予測モデルの総被害床面積を用いて建物被rn害に伴う環境負荷の時系列予測を行った。