Incorporating Wind Power in Generating Capacity Reliability Evaluation Using Different Models

摘要

Appropriate wind speed modeling is an important requirement in the reliability evaluation of wind integrated electric power systems. This paper examines and illustrates the effects on the generating capacity adequacy indices of a small test system of using different wind speed modeling procedures in Monte Carlo simulation and analytical reliability assessment. Wind speed data for a number of different time periods at two quite diverse locations in Canada are used in the studies. Wind speed is represented using hourly observed data, hourly mean wind speed data, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series, moving average (MA) time series, Normal distribution, and Markov chain models.