Combining Modified Weibull Distribution Models for Power System Reliability Forecast

摘要

Under the deregulated environment, electric utility companies have been encouraged to ensure maximum system reliability through the employment of cost-effective long-term asset management strategies. Previously, the age based Weibull distribution has been used vastly for modeling and forecasting aging failures. However, this model is only based on asset age and does not consider additional information such as asset infant mortality period and equipment energization delay. Some works on modifying Weibull distribution functions to model bathtub-shaped failure rate function can be practically difficult due to model complexity and inexplicit parameters. To improve the existing methods, this paper proposes four modified Weibull distribution models with straightforward physical meanings specific to power system applications. Furthermore, this paper proposes a novel method to effectively evaluate different Weibull distribution models and select the suitable model(s). More importantly, if more than one suitable model exists, these models can be mathematically combined as a joint forecast model, which could provide better accuracy to forecast future asset reliability. Finally, the proposed approach was applied to a Canadian utility company for the reliability forecast of electromechanical relays and distribution poles to demonstrate its practicality and usefulness.