Fertility intentions of having a second child among the floating population in China: Effects of socioeconomic factors and home ownership

摘要

The adoption of the universal two-child policy in late 2015, replacing the one-child policy, signals a dramatic shift in China's fertility policy. The 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey provides a nationally representative dataset that enables us to reveal, for the first time, the socioeconomic correlates of fertility intentions of having a second child among China's large migrant population. Using a multilevel analytical framework, we find that male, younger, and more affluent migrants, those from minority ethnic groups, individuals migrating from rural areas, those whose first child is a girl, those at 5 years after having the first child, and migrants living in economically less developed cities are more likely to express the intention to have a second child. Moreover, our study establishes a correlation between home ownership and fertility intentions. Migrants who own their own home in the destination city express lower intentions to have a second child, compared with those who are renting. We suggest a proposition about this counterintuitive relationship between home ownership and lower fertility intentions: home ownership and childbearing compete for the limited financial resources of migrants who are socioeconomically disadvantaged in China.