Damage probability of offshore pipelines due to anchoring ships

摘要

The paper presents a simulation method for evaluation of underwater pipeline safety in the aspect of anchoring vessels in emergency. The simulation model is probabilistic, based on Monte Carlo simulation principle including a simplified algorithm of human decision making and a simulation module of mechanics of anchoring ships. Results achieved with the presented model can be applied to determine safety of underwater pipelines and as guidelines for pipeline protection. The paper presents also an example case study of safety determination of a planned underwater gas pipeline to be located on the Baltic Sea bed.