Probability Analysis of Damage to Offshore Pipeline by Ship Factors

摘要

The transport of hydrocarbons by offshore pipeline is threatened by the rapid expansion of pipenetworks and the increasing frequency of maritime activities. Risk management is thus necessary tomanage and prevent ship-related hazardous events that may damage offshore pipelines. Probabilityanalysis is the key to assessing the risk associated with ship operations on offshore pipelines, anddecision making in managing that risk. Bayesian Network (BN) models are proposed in this paper todetermine the probability of anchor damage and trawling damage to subsea pipelines. The BNmodels are developed by integrating directed acyclic graphs, and three computational methods(Boolean operation, standard and historical statistical analysis, and fuzzy set theory) to elicitmarginal probability tables and conditional probability tables. A case study illustrates the utilizationof two BN-related functions – probability prediction and probability updating – to determine finalprobabilities of damage to a subsea pipeline. The results of the analysis support risk ranking and riskreducing decisions associated with maritime operations in the area of offshore pipelines.