Investigation of Coastal Inundation Due to a Rise in Sea Level (Temporary and Permanent)

摘要

Population along coastal areas currently shows about three times average growth compared to other parts of the world. On the other hand, coastal flooding is a real threat to lives and property, and it is difficult to manage. Studies indicate that greenhouse gas emissions affect climate change and sea level rise (SLR). It is difficult to determine the exact value of the SLR and floodplain area because of the long-term effects, complexity, and source of uncertainties. This study attempts to calculate the SLR for the coast of Iran in the form of future scenarios. By using geographic information system (GIS) and digital elevation models, we predicted water level and flood depth. The high water level, which includes wind setup, wave setup, run up and permanent SLR, was investigated during the 21~(st) century. These factors are calculated for the coast of Iran (Bandar Abbas) in five future scenarios based on the GIS rules. In the other view, increasing in coastal flood hazards, population growth and land use change means that the people, property, and environment along the coastal area will be exposed to greater inundation where improvements in coastal protection are absent or slow to improve. The results show that the ratio of whole flood plain area from SO (present scenario) to S4 (worse scenario) is 3.5, but this ratio, in the case of residential flood plain, increases to 34. This means the residential area is more affected than other land uses. This study can help coastal managers make land use change plans for flood risk management as adequate methods.