Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Hydrological Droughts in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

摘要

The current study used a threshold approach to determine the number of drought events, scarcity, their mean and maximum duration whereas New Innovative Trend analysis (ITA) was used to determine the spatio-temporal pattern of hydrological drought from 1961 to 2010. The results revealed a trendless pattern of scarcity at Dainyor station excluding extreme pattern which increased significantly whereas the mild pattern of water scarcity was observed at Gilgit station which was found to be increased significantly while other factors of hydrological drought were found trendless. The extreme pattern of water scarcity was found to be increased at Garhi Habibullah station whereas the scarcity pattern increased significantly at Naran station. Overall, the extreme pattern of scarcity increased considerably in the UIB. A significant increase in the maximum duration of drought events and an insignificant increase in the extreme pattern of the maximum duration of the drought was observed at Naran. Though, it was observed an increase in the mild pattern of maximum duration at Dainyor whereas a decrease at Gilgit. However, the maximum duration pattern decreased significantly at Garhi Habibullah. All other patterns of maximum duration occurred in the trendless region.