Simulations of shipping along Arctic routes: comparison, analysis and economic perspectives

摘要

Arctic sea routes have for long been of interest for shipping because of much shorter distances between the Atlantic and the Pacific. Sea ice prevented real development of significant traffic, but did not prevent research from trying to assess their economic viability. With the melting of sea ice in the Arctic, this effort at modeling the profitability of Arctic shipping routes has received a new impetus. However, the conclusions of these studies vary widely, depending on the parameters chosen and their value. What can be said of these models, from 1991 until 2013, and to what extent can a model be drawn, capitalising on twenty years of simulations?