Copper may average $9,000/mt next year: Citigroup

摘要

Coppertpricestcantreachtrecordtlevelstnexttnyeartandtmayteventaveraget$9,000/mttnduetintpartttotstrongtdemandtgrowthtandtnpotentialtminetlabortdisruptions,tCitigrouptnGlobaltMarketstsaidtintatreporttFriday.t“Astwetnexpected,tthetcoppertpricethastsettfreshtcycletnhighstovertthetpasttmonth,tastatnumbertoftnbullishtinfluencestcometintotplay,”tCitigrouptnsaid.t“MovestintthetUStdollartcontinuettotnheavilytimpacttcoppertprices,tthoughtthetsup-nply/demandtfundamentalsthavetalsotprovedtnheavilytsupportive.”tThetreporttsaid,thowever,thattthetannouncementtoftphysicallytbackedtncoppertETFstbytatnumbertoftfirmstist“prob-nablytoftmosttsignificance,tparticularlytintthetnmediumtterm.”tThettonnagetthattthetETFstnabsorbtremainstthetmajortuncertaintytfortthetnmarket,tCitigrouptsaid.t“Take-uptbytinves-ntorstwilltaddtantextratlayertoftdemandttotatnmarkettalreadytintdeficit;tbesidesttin,tthetnfundamentalstfortcoppertaretthetstrongesttnoftthetLMEtcomplex,”tittsaid.t“Whiletsometn--tnotablytconsumerst--twilltdecrytthetadventtnoftphysicallytbackedtbasetmetaltETFs,tulti-nmately,tthethighertpricettheytwilltcausetintthetnshortttermtshouldtelicittatsupplytresponsetnthattwilltbringtthetpricetbackttot‘normal’tnlevelstoverttime.”tThetelasticitytoftsupplytfortncoppertmetaltistmuchtlowertthantfortalumi-nnumtandtthetothertbasetmetals,tCitigrouptnsaid.t“ETFttaketuptwilltdependtontinvestors’tnviewstoftthetlikelihoodtoftfurthertpricetgains,”tnittadded.t“Attmoretthant$8,700,tthetscopetnforthugetgainstintthetpricet--tsimilarttotthosetnseentint2009/10t--tseemstlimited.”tCitigrouptnnotedtthattfortthetfirstttimetintsixtmonths,tnglobaltexchangetstockstrosetintOctober.tn“However,tthetlikelihoodtistthattwithtthetnmarkettlikelyttotrecordtquarterlytdeficitstuntiltnattleasttQ3t2012,tstockstwilltremaintundertndownwardtpressuretovertthetnextttwotyears,”tnittsaid.tSupply-sidetissuestaretsetttothavetnmoretinfluencetontthetpricetovertthetcomingtnfewtmonths,taccordingttotCitigroup.t“Wagetnnegotiationstattsometlargetminestcouldtseetnsometoutages,tandtongoingtdisappointingtnoretgradestwilltseetminetsupplytstrugglettotnmaketgainstoftmoretthant2%tint2011,”tittnsaid.t“Wetsuspecttthattfreshtrecordtpricetnhighstcantbetsettint2011,taststrongtdemandtngrowthtpushestthetmarkettintotatlargetsup-nplytdeficit.tThetpricetcantaveraget$9,000tintn2011tiftminetstoppagestaretsignificanttandtnETFtdemandtistaststrongtastwetexpect.”