2010 oil market weak, despite return to growth

摘要

Oil market sentiment soured mometarily in July, as optimism about the extent of the economic recovery was dented by poor economic indicators, only to see equity markets rebound towards end-month. Leading indicators, such as business sentiment, appear to have bottomed out and are improving, albeit from a low base, consistent with a recessionary trough in third or fourth-quarter 2009. However, unemployment, a lagging indicator, is expected to continue rising.rnOptimists can also find succor in the Chinese economy, which grew by 7.9% in second-quarter 2009, according to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, up from 6.1% in the first, then the slowest growth in more than a decade. This puts China back on track to achieve its goal of 8% growth for the year. But Beijing warned that many pitfalls still lie ahead. "There are many difficulties and challenges existing in the current national economic performance," bureau spokesman Li Xiaochao said. "The base for recovery is still infirm. The momentum for picking up is unstable. The recovery pattern is unbalanced and thus there are still uncertain volatile factors." Concerns such as these remain not just for China, but for broader recovery in the OECD.