As crude oil futures hit 18-month highs in April, different interpretations of the causes of the rally were quick to emerge. The International Energy Agency argued that the "declining open interest for NYMEX light sweet crude during March as a whole that accompanied higher prices points to more complex market drivers that the 'it's all-speculation bandwagon might admit.'"rnYet what those complex market drivers are remained obscure as the IEA noted "the sizeable cushion of spare capacity and OECD stock"; that the global market balance does not look "overly weak" for 2010 under most scenarios; and that "some of the more hysterical supply concerns for mid-decade have receded."
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