Spare capacity reassessment

摘要

Spare capacity is expected to expand in the next few years, but the data used by the IEA is confusing. It announced in its presentation of the MTMOR report that global spare capacity would be close to 7 million b/d by 2015, a very large margin by historical standards, falling to 6.38 million b/d by 2018. In a reassessment of its data, the agency is using "implied OPEC spare capacity", calculated as OPEC capacity minus the call on OPEC and changes in stock levels. It represents capacity that could "theoretically" be produced at the wellhead within 30 days and sustained at that level for 90 days. It represents an upper band estimate, which if taken alone, gives a misleading impression.