Forecast scenarios for oil demand tend to split the future into two extremes – business-as-usual –rnand peak oil demand. The former is environmentally inadequate, if not irresponsible, while the latterrnis an unrealizable ideal. The future lies somewhere in between. However, these forecasts struggle torncapture changes in consumer values and disruptive events, both geopolitical and technological.rnEnergy forecasts are at their most predictive when life is dull, but at their worst when change comesrnquick.
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