System starts to tighten

摘要

The risk premium priced into October power for delivery in the French and Dutch markets began to fall mid-September as forecasts showed no signs of an early onset of winter. October base closed September 14 at €63.65/MWh in France and €61.90/MWh in the Netherlands, compared with €65.50/MWh and €63.50/MWh on August 31. "Prices are less resilient than before [but] the premium for spikes in October is still quite high," said a trader September 15. Other traders thought the last fortnight of September would be the first test of the region's ability to cope with reduced nuclear capacity in Germany. "We've got less light and higher demand, this is the time to test the system," said one. Market participants were also still expecting above-average levels of nuclear plant maintenance in France. Further in, power for delivery September 19 was in the spotlight amid expectations that the German spot price could be the highest of the year. "If the availability data is right there'll be more than 1 GW of lignite missing for the whole day on Monday and 1 GW less nuke. Solar looks really bad so overall we could have 4-6 GW less. The bid-offer curve in Germany is super tight. Holland is already flowing at a maximum to Germany, there's no country which can stop Germany from having problems - exports from Czech, Switzerland, Holland and France are already pressured," said a trader.