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French Electoral Reform and the Abstention Rate

机译:法国选举改革与弃权率

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摘要

In France, more than other mature democracies, the election rules undergo reform. Our concern is how these reforms influence mass electoral behaviour, namely voter turnout. We gather an extended national data set on the abstention rate, across the republics of France, and subject it to an interrupted time-series analysis. Two sets of hypotheses are explored: structural and tactical. The structural findings—on constitutional shifts, suffrage extension, ballot rounds, election type—are largely null. However, the tactical hypotheses are strongly supported. Ruling parties are shown to alter the election rules, in order to enhance their presidential power at the ballot box. In particular, the reforms surrounding the elections of 1962, 1981, 1988 and 2002 each, systematically, increased abstention in legislative election contests. This reduced turnout can be seen as a reasonable response of voters to the ‘presidentialisation’ of these National Assembly elections, rendering them second order. To the extent that future legislative elections are decoupled from presidential ones, the expectation would be a rise in their voter turnout.
机译:在法国,选举规则比其他成熟的民主国家更多。我们担心的是,这些改革如何影响大众选举行为,即选民投票率。我们在法国各共和国收集了有关弃权率的扩展的国家数据集,并对其进行了中断的时间序列分析。探索了两组假设:结构假设和战术假设。结构上的发现-在宪法上的改变,选举权的扩大,投票,选举类型上-基本上是无效的。但是,战术假设得到了有力的支持。已显示执政党改变了选举规则,以增强其在投票箱中的总统权力。特别是围绕1962年,1981年,1988年和2002年选举的改革分别系统地增加了对立法选举的弃权。这种减少的投票率可以被视为选民对这些国民议会选举的“总统化”的合理反应,使其成为第二顺位。如果未来的立法选举与总统选举脱钩,那么人们的选民投票率将会上升。

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