A decision support system for agricultural drought management using risk assessment

摘要

Since predicted changes in climate will modify temperature and rainfall patterns, there are concerns about the potential impacts of these changes on agricultural drought and agricultural water resources management. An agricultural drought is influenced by several factors such as rainfall, soil characteristics, crops, and reservoir water supply and may be defined as the imbalance of water circulation in paddy and water environments. In particular, soil moisture and water supply for reservoir demand are the most direct and important indicators of agricultural drought events. In the past, conventional drought management approaches based on climatic and meteorological observations have been the primary tools used for measuring drought severity. Because of the spatial and temporal variability and multiple impacts of drought, it is necessary to improve tools to determine the onset, severity, spatial extent, and end of the drought conditions. Improved and available data for mapping and monitoring of this phenomenon are also needed. Effective and efficient drought management can be achieved through drought monitoring based on the ability to assess current conditions and provide improved tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of future changes. In this article, a methodology is developed to support the risk-based decision-making process involved in agricultural drought management using the following four strategies: drought assessment and monitoring, drought forecast and outlook, drought countermeasures, and drought records management.