THE STATE OF THE LAUNCH VEHICLE INDUSTRY

摘要

It is clear that there are either too many launchers or there is not enough demand for launch services. The launch industry cannot sustain a 100-percent overcapacity without reductions and/or consolidations. Thus, the industry can expect continuing adjustments during the next one to three years with the resultant possible impacts on business of fewer launch options and higher prices for users [Kaplan,'95]. Do not expect much relief from the government beyond its ongoing support in the form of a limited number of expendable launches each year. The Shuttle and SLI programs offer little or no direct support for commercial users in the near-term, although there may be a number of technological advances that eventually help to reduce costs and increase reliability. With continuing high launch costs and competing terrestrial technologies, it is possible that the commercial satellite telecommunication business may experience some further erosion. However, there remain a sufficient number of missions that can only be efficiently done with satellites, and those will hopefully sustain an active space industry [Kaplan, '98]. Sustaining space missions include direct to home (DTH) broadcasting, digital audio radio satellites (DARS), remote sensing, mobile services, navigation satellites, and an array of military missions.