Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?

摘要

This paper primarily studies the effects of irrational factors (investor sentiment) on, analysts' forecast bias and the impacts of rational factors (conflicts of interest) on the sentiment-forecast bias nexus. Empirical findings show that investor sentiment does have significant positive impacts on analysts' forecast bias. This effect still holds after controlling for rational factors (commission relationship, underwriting relationship and reputation factors). Moreover, investor sentiment has more notable impacts on analysts' forecast bias for those who are under the pressure of conflicts of interest, particularly for the commission relationship. The stronger the commission relationship is, the greater the analysts' forecast bias. Our results provide new insight into the mechanism through which investor sentiment affects returns.