A population-growth model for multiple generations of technology products

摘要

Producing new generation products is a challenging task for companies manufacturing technology products. This paper is based on the effort of Intel Corporation in building models that support introducing new generation products. The new product introduction in Intel depends on the speed of technology development. The product characteristics of new products not only influence their own demand but influence the market of related next generation products. Intel invests every time for introduction of new products, on the infrastructural facilities. However all depends up on how accurately the demand for the new product is forecasted. This article focuses on long range forecasting that includes the introduction of multiple range products. First to invest on facilities long before the introduction of products, the aggregate demand over the product cycle should be known with details of start period, peak-demand and the time of achieving the peak demand. Secondly the model should take in to account the competition factor and finally the forecast uncertainty should be predicted. This paper proposes a model based on the situation in Intel, but the model can be used for long-range forecasting for multiple generation products. (39 refs.).