Planning for multiple-generation product lines using dynamic variable state models with data input from similar products

摘要

Multiple-generation product lines require carefully planned strategies in order to reap the benefits of utilizing technology assets and resources efficiently over an elongated time span. In this paper, we build on our previous work in which we successfully implemented dynamic variable state models (DVSMs) to forecast the introduction timing of future generations for an existing multiple-generation product line. Here we implement DVSMs for the design of a new multiple-generation product line. We investigate the potential for using historical sales data about similar products to generate a complete set of forecasts and relevant strategic moves using DVSMs. We present a case study implementing the proposed framework on Apple Inc.'s iPad product line. Results show that the forecast performance of the model matches the realized real data, and hence we deem the DSVM to be appropriate for modeling a new multi-generation product line.