Sovereign wealth funds and macroeconomic stability in oil-exporting African countries

摘要

This paper investigates the effectiveness of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in reducing macroeconomic volatility occasioned by oil price shocks in oil-exporting African countries. The oil price boom-bust cycles complicate fiscal operations, distort budget implementation and trigger macroeconomic instability in oil exporting African countries. We formulate and simulate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features SWFs and the fiscal sector. We compare a baseline model without the SWFs to a model with the SWFs. The simulation analysis suggests that the establishment of SWFs can mitigate the vulnerability of oil-exporting African countries to oil price shocks. In particular, SWFs can reduce fiscal expenditure and real exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, SWFs can stabilise the level of external debt and reduce the level of money supply thereby sterilising the oil revenue. Since oil price shock is one of the important external shocks inducing economic instability in oil-exporting African countries, the creation of SWFs can insulate these economies from external shocks.