Market Outlook

摘要

•tCrude tanker earnings generally fell in January, with VLCC spot earnings declining 29% m-o-m to average $38,513/day. However, clean MR earnings improved 9% m-o-m to stand at $11,667/day. •tDeadweight demand for crude tankers is currently projected to grow by 0.8% in 2017, compared to 4.5% in 2016. This slowdown in growth is partially a result of the expected impact of agreed oil production cuts by major exporters which commenced on the 1~(st) January. Initial data suggests that so far, compliance by OPEC with the promised reduction in oil output is over 90%. Nevertheless, it is uncertain whether this situation will continue for the remainder of the year. Elsewhere, Nigeria's oil production is expected to remain under pressure, limiting exports, although the situation is still subject to uncertainty. In contrast, the situation in Libya has stabilised recently, which may support crude exports from the country. Meanwhile, a rise in US shale oil output is expected to limit US crude imports. With a number of different factors at play this year, there are clearly a range of possible outcomes for seaborne crude trade in 2017.