Seaborne Crude Exports

摘要

1.Global seaborne crude trade is projected to rebound by 3.4% in 2021 to 38.5m bpd. However, The 'bounceback' in trade is expected to be partially limited by ongoing OPEC+ production cuts throughout Q1, and continued pressure on oil demand in many countries due to 'lockdown' restrictions. 2.Indian crude imports in January reached 4.6m bpd, following a sustained period of import volumes under 4.0m bpd from May - October 2020. Imports seem to have now returned to 'typical' volumes as the Indian economy gradually recovers. Indeed, the January volume sits c.0.1m bpd above the 2019 average. 3.Meanwhile, it has been a weak start to the year for US crude import and export volumes, following significant disruption caused by freezing temperatures in late February. In the ytd to start-March, seaborne crude imports averaged an estimated 2.1m bpd, and total crude exports averaged 3.0m bpd, only slightly above the annual lows seen in Q4 2020 in US crude imports and exports. 4.In 2022, global crude trade is projected to grow by 4% y-o-y to 40.0m bpd, particularly supported by growth in production in Brazil and OPEC+ countries.