Seaborne Crude Exports

摘要

On the exporter side, falling Venezuelan and Iranian crude exports were significant factors limiting the pace of crude trade growth in 2018, with these trends expected to continue into 2019. US sanctions on Iran remain in place, whilst the situation in Venezuela seems unlikely to improve soon. However, some support to global volume growth is expected from further robust expansion in US and Brazilian exports, with output in both countries expected to increase rapidly. Looking to 2020, the introduction of the IMO's 2020 global sulphur cap could have an additional positive impact on crude trade volumes, with potential for increased refinery throughput globally to raise output of compliant fuels, whilst changing demand for different crude types is also likely to have an impact. In general, the regulations are expected to lead to higher demand for sweeter crudes, such as those produced in the US, Brazil and the North Sea, whilst some support to exports of sour crudes is expected from heightened demand in countries with more complex refineries capable of processing these into low-sulphur products, such as the US. In combination with rising output, these trends are expected to support robust expansion of 40% in US exports in 2020, and 16% in Brazilian exports, with firm growth expected in long-haul shipments to Asia.