EIA adopts new methodology

摘要

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adopted a new methodology to show high and low ranges in forecasts of oil and natural gas prices, as revealed in the October issue of its Short Term Energy Outlook. Rather than continuing the use of variables such as inventories, gross domestic product, weather, OPEC's spare production capacity, and non-OPEC output, EIA now derives confidence intervals around expected futures prices using the implied volatilities of benchmark oil and gas options markets on NYMEX. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate to average $70/bbl over this year's last quarter and into first-quarter 2010 before rising gradually to $75/bbl by yearend 2010 as US and world economic conditions improve.