Characterizing bushfire occurrences over Jamaica using the mod is c6 fire archive 2001-2019

摘要

There is an increasing need to develop bushfire monitoring and early warning systems for Jamaica and the Caribbean. However, there are few studies that examine fire variability for the region. In this study the MODIS C6 Fire Archive for 2001-2019 is used to characterize bushfire frequencies across Jamaica and to relate the variability to largescale climate. Using additive mixed model and backward linear regression, the MODIS represents 80% and 73% of the local Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB) data variability for 2010-2015, respectively. However, the MODIS values are smaller by a factor of approximately 30. The MODIS climatology over Jamaica reveals a primary peak in March and a secondary maximum in July, coinciding with months of minimum rainfall. A significant positive linear trend is observed for JulyAugust bushfire events over 2001-2019 and represents 29% of the season's variability. Trends in allisland totals in other seasons or annually were not statistically significant. However, positive annual trends in Zone 2 (eastern Jamaica) are statistically significant and may support an indication that a drying trend is evolving over the east. Significant 5year and 3.5year periodicities are also evident for April-June and September- November variability, respectively. Southern Jamaica and particularly the parish of Clarendon, known for its climatological dryness, show the greatest fire frequencies. The study provides evidence of linkages between fire occurrences over Jamaica and oceanic and atmospheric variability over the Atlantic and Pacific. For example, allisland totals show relatively strong association with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The study suggests that development of an early warning system for bushfire frequency that includes climate indices is possible and shows strong potential for fire predictions.