A novel method for the holistic, simulation driven ship design optimization under uncertainty in the big data era

摘要

The changing fuel costs, tough and volatile market conditions, the constant societal pressure for a "green" environmental footprint combined with ever demanding international safety regulations setup a completely new framework for commercial ship design. Ballast Water Treatment Systems, the ambitious IMO agenda for decarbonization of shipping by 2050, the Goal Based Standards and most importantly the revision of the IMO MARPOL Annex VI, constitute a framework with strict and often contradicting requirements. On the other hand, the global economic uncertainty, rapid fleet growth and unsteady demand of commodities create a volatile economic operating environment for shipping companies.Ship design needs to adapt to this new reality. Holistic approaches, with lifecycle considerations, aiming at robust designs are deemed necessary. Such a methodology is presented herein. It is built within the software CAESES and is consisted by a geometrical model core with several integrated modules that cover stability, strength, powering and propulsion, safety, economics, as well as an operation simulation module, enabling the user to simulate the response in variations of the geometrical, design variables of the vessel under uncertainty. The latter is captured in several levels including Economic, Environmental, Operational uncertainty as well as the inaccuracy of the methods themselves.