Mitigating uncertainty and enhancing resilience to climate change in the fisheries sector in Taiwan: Policy implications for food security

摘要

The human population is projected to grow to more than 9 billion by 2050. New farming and fishing techniques are continually being developed. However, food production remains restricted by the finiteness of natural resources and the rapid increase in the global population. In the future, food production may decline because of the aggravated effects of climate change. Food production will be unable to satisfy the demands of the global population, leading to a food security crisis. As the world population continues to increase, food shortages will become increasingly severe, particularly for regions located in "climate impact hot spots" in tropical and subtropical zones and for small-island countries such as Taiwan. In the present study, supply and demand are analysed to examine the risks and uncertainties associated with the impact of climate change on the domestic and imported seafood supply. First, we conduct a literature review to identify the climate risk for sea food security, and then, we analyse the domestic production of both the marine fishing catch and aquaculture. This study also examines the critical problems of the imported seafood supply and applies a comparative analysis of impact type and differences in the top 10 seafood import countries to organize adaptation strategies to climate change. Moreover, due to the type of climate impact and the differences between long-term climate impact and extreme climate impact, we collect and compile the existing climate adaptation strategies of fishery production, seafood importing, and the demand and supply of seafood in Taiwan. Finally, we perform a comparative analysis to seek any deficiencies in the existing climate adaptation strategies and offer new adaptation guidelines based on the existing climate adaptation strategies. The results show that Taiwan's major adaptation strategies have been precautionary mitigation measures. In terms of resilience management, only the buffer stock scheme plan and the stabilization funds method are selected for some specific species to mitigate the short-term fluctuation in both yield and price for imported domestic seafood. However, we will confront uncertainties stemming from global climate change in the future; the existing climate adaptation strategies of Taiwan are still not sufficient to respond to climate impacts. For example, the climate change early warning system is still very inadequate, the existing scientific knowledge is insufficient, and the current adaptation strategies are insufficient for resolving the fluctuations in the market mechanism of seafood. According to the principles of risk management, the adaptation strategies recommended in this study can be differentiated into two categories: precautionary mitigation measures can be used to adapt to domestic production and uncertainties; such measures include avoidance, transfer, and reduction to prevent the frequency and consequences of climate change for building a resilient fisheries sector. Moreover, resilience management (e.g., risk retention) can be used to respond to uncertainties in supply for adjusting production and mitigating the risks of climate change. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.