Prediction analysis model of integrated carrying capacity using set pair analysis

摘要

As a comprehensive capacity of nature, society and humans, integrated carrying capacity (ICC) is the driving force of regional socioeconomic development. Only when an ecosystem is under-loaded can socioeconomic development be sustainable. ICC is an accumulative total value of each indicator's carrying capacity, which reflects a static status. The ICC prediction analysis is one prerequisite to making economic development plans. In this paper, a dynamic prediction model is developed by using the model of set pair analysis (SPA) to predict the growth tendency of ICC. The model is tested in a case comprising eight coastal cities in Yangtze. (1) The average error rate of this prediction model is merely 0.38%, and the lowest error rate is 0.01%. The SPA model is better to predict ICC tendencies. (2) According to the national development plan, the eight cities' ICC is predicted in 2015. (3) The prediction model is a multiple method that can contain all indicators of ICC. This model can estimate the maximal carrying capacity of a natural ecosystem to make the most suitable economic development policy. The socioeconomic development must comply with the under-loaded capacity to maintain sustainable development. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.