On estimating the epistemic probability of realizing Q=P_fus/P_aux larger than a specified lower bound in ITER

摘要

A simplified analysis is given of the problem of estimating the 'epistemic probability' for ITER to attain a power amplification factor Q larger than a certain lower bound. Attention is restricted to the parameters of ITER-FEAT and the 1998 ITER design. The probabilistic framework is briefly discussed and the distributional interval estimates for Q following from the interval estimates of the confinement time are derived (a) for ITER operation at constant fusion Output power P_fus, and (b) for operation at temperature that maximizes Q=P_fus/P_aux.