Neural-net disruption predictor in JT-60U

摘要

The prediction of major disruptions caused by the density limit, the plasma current ramp-down with high internal inductance l_i, the low density locked mode and the β-limit has been investigated in JT-60U. The concept of 'stability level', newly proposed in this paper to predict the occurrence of a major disruption, is calculated from nine input parameters every 2 ms by the neural network and the start of a major disruption is predicted when the stability level decreases to a certain level, the 'alarm level'. The neural network is trained in two steps. It is first trained with 12 disruptive and six non-disruptive shots (total of 8011 data points). Second, the target output data for 12 disruptive shots are modified and the network is trained again with additional data points generated by the operator. The 'neural-net disruption predictor' obtained has been tested for 300 disruptive shots (128 945 data points) and 1008 non-disruptive shots (982 800 data points) selected from nine years of operation (1991-1999) of JT-60U. Major disruptions except for those caused by the β-limit have been predicted with a prediction success rate of 97-98% at 10 ms prior to the disruption and higher than 90% at 30 ms prior to the disruption while the false alarm rate is 2.1% for non-disruptive shots. This prediction performance has been confirmed for 120 disruptive shots (56 163 data points), caused by the density limit, as well as 1032 non-disruptive shots (1004 611 data points) in the last four years of operation (1999-2002) of JT-60U. A careful selection of the input parameters supplied to the network and the newly developed two-step training of the network have reduced the false alarm rate resulting in a considerable improvement of the prediction success rate.