Conversion services-often overlooked

摘要

Although it is a critical element in the nuclear fuel cycle, the importance of natural urani-um (U_3O_8) to uranium hexa-fluoride (UF_6) conversion services supply is often overlooked. This is partly a result of the fact that conversion services only amount to about 2% of the total nuclear fuel cycle's cost, while uranium and enrichment amount to about 50%. Nonetheless, the importance of the world's conversion services business can be gauged by the fact that it currently represents revenues for the five primary suppliers of approximately $325 million annually, a figure that will approach $0.5 billion by 2010. The health of the conversion services market's health can be characterised, in part, by the behaviour of the spot market price in recent years. The spot market price for deliveries in North America bottomed out in the second and third quarters of 2000, faffing as low as $2.25 per kilogram of U as UF_6 (kgU), a level that suppliers claimed was below the cost of production; the price for deliveries in Western Europe at that time was about $3.50 per kgU. In fact, the long term price indicators for North American delivery bottomed out at about $3.25 in 2000. As the end of 2000 approached, the spot market price began to rise when it became apparent that secondary market excess supplies had been cleared from the market. The price upturn was strengthened in December 2000 when USEC filed dumping allegations against the two European enrichers, Urenco and Eurodif/Cogema. The market price received a further upward impetus in February 2001 when BNFL announced that it planned to shut down its Spring-fields conversion plant at the end of March 2006 and that, as a result, it was now ceasing all further marketing of conversion services. These events resulted in a doubling of the North American spot market price by May 2001. The current North American and European spot market prices are approximately $5.10 and $5.75 per kgU, respectively The long term price indicators are about 10 to 20 cents higher.