A conceptual approach to the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for nuclear safety programs

摘要

The design, refurbishment and future decommissioning of nuclear reactors are crucially concerned with reducing the risk of radiation exposure that can result in adverse health effects and potential loss of life. To address this concern, large financial investments have been made to ensure safety of operating nuclear power plants worldwide. The efficacy of the expenditures incurred to provide safety must be judged against the safety benefit to be gained from such investments. We have developed an approach that provides a defendable basis for making that judgement. If the costs of risk reduction are disproportionate to the safety benefits derived, then the expenditures are not optimal; in essence the societal resources are being diverted away from other critical areas such as health care, education and social services that also enhance the quality of life. Thus, the allocation of society's resources devoted to nuclear safety must be continually appraised in light of competing needs, because there is a limit on the resources that any society can devote to extend life. The purpose of the paper is to present a simple and methodical approach to assessing the benefits of nuclear safety programs and regulations. The paper presents the Life-Quality Index (LQI) as a tool for the assessment of risk reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance both safety and the quality of life. The LQI is formulated as a utility function consistent with the principles of rational decision analysis. The LQI is applied to quantify the societal willingness-to-pay (SWTP) for safety measures enacted to reduce of the risk of potential exposures to ionising radiation. The proposed approach provides essential support to help improve the cost-benefit analysis of engineering safety programs and safety regulations.