Using CARRX models to study factors affecting the volatilities of Asian equity markets

摘要

The range of daily asset prices is often used as a measure of volatility. Using a CARRX (conditional autoregressive range with exogenous variables) model, and the parsimony principle, the paper investigates the factors affecting the volatilities of Asian equity markets. Since the beginning of the new Century, emerging Asian markets such as Taiwan and Shanghai have been undergoing various stages of financial globalization. The volatility of the equity market may not be explained solely by its own dynamics. In this paper, we examine volatility using the following factors: (ⅰ) lagged returns; (ⅱ) lagged absolute returns; (ⅲ) own trading volume; (ⅳ) U.S. factors; (ⅴ) European factors; and (ⅵ) regional (Asian) factors. Points (ⅰ) and (ⅲ) are by and large significant, while (ⅱ) is not. Controlling for (ⅰ), (ⅱ) and (ⅲ), we find evidence that the volatility of European markets has spillovers on to both the Taiwan and Tokyo markets, mild evidence that the volatility of the U.S. market has spillovers on to the Hong Kong market, but there are no spillovers from the European or U.S. markets on to the Shanghai market.