The Economic Impact of War

摘要

It Is Feb. 7, 2003, Just Afteramerican Troops have seized several Iraqi airfields to be used as staging areas. Suddenly, Scud missiles―armed with both chemical and conventional warheads―strike the airfields. Hundreds of Americans die. The whole U.S. battle plan is thrown into disarray. The Iraqis (it turns out) abandoned their airfields with little resistance precisely to make them easy targets. We don't know if there will be a war or, as this story suggests, how it might unfold. But the fact that we don't know now overhangs the economy. It weighs on confidence. Companies hesitate to make commitments. The uncertainties can't be dispelled by low interest rates or lofty reassurances. At a recent congressional hearing, Democratic Rep. Pete Stark quizzed Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. STARK: [President Bush has] an obsession, it appears, to plunge us into a war. [On] the assumption that we will be there one or two years and $100 billion [or] $130 billion a year... what effect would this have on our economy?