Social security reformers are totally bogged down. Whether that's good news or bad news, I'm not sure. Most Republicans seek an extreme makeover―diverting some of your payroll tax into a private investment account. Most Democrats say phooey, that's too costly and risky, and anyway the program only needs some tweaks. A few rebels think that everyone is crying wolf: Social Security may not need any fixes at all. The 2004 Social Security trustees' report, due out this week, shows that full benefits can be paid for nearly 40 years, without skipping a beat. After that, payouts could be reduced by 25 percent, but Congress wouldn't let the program unravel that far. Even if it did, the "loss" wouldn't be as bad as it sounds. Real benefits (after inflation) rise every year for new retirees. Even with a 25 percent haircut, benefits in 2042 will be much higher than they are today, says Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and coauthor, with Mark Weisbrot, of the book "Social Security: The Phony Crisis."
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