Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Probabilistic Reasoning: Statistics Base, Matrix, and Application

摘要

Graphical models for probabilistic reasoning are now in widespread use. Many approaches have been developed such as Bayesian network. A newly developed approach named as dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is initially presented in a previous paper, in which only the inference algorithm in terms of individual events and probabilities is addressed. In this paper, we first explain the statistic basis of DUCG. Then, we extend the algorithm to the form of matrices of events and probabilities. It is revealed that the representation of DUCG can be incomplete and the exact probabilistic inference may still be made. A real application of DUCG for fault diagnoses of a generator system of a nuclear power plant is demonstrated, which involves ${>}{600}$ variables. Most inferences take ${<}{rm 1}~{rm s}$ with a laptop computer. The causal logic between inference result and observations is graphically displayed to users so that they know not only the result, but also why the result obtained.