Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry

摘要

1. Nations will probably meet only the lower ends of their emissions pledges in the absence of a binding international agreementrn2. Nations can bank an estimated 12 gigatonnes of CO_2equivalents surplus allowances for use after 2012rn3. Land-use rules are likely to result in further allowance increases of 0.5 GtCO_2-eq per yearrn4. Global emissions in 2020 could thus be up to 20% higher than todayrn5. Current pledges mean a greater than 50% chance that warming will exceed 3 ℃ by 2100rn6. If nations agree to halve emissions by 2050, there is still a 50% chance that warming will exceed 2 ℃ and will almost certainly exceed 1.5 ℃.