In modelling, simplicity isn't simple

摘要

Berore computing became widespread, quantitative modelling usually required simplification - spherical cows, if you like -to render complex problems tractable. Fields such as sedimentary geology that are only now becoming quantitative present a dilemma: is there any reason not to skip the first steps and go directly to the most detailed models we can create? Do we really need spherical cows? I think that the evolution of relatively mature quantitative fields through a stage of creating simplified models was a matter of more than lack of access to large computers.