Projections of the future state and variability of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have long been inconsistent among climate models, rendering uncertain the many local and remote conditions associated with this main driver of the climate system. Now, Scott Power et al assess ensembles of climate models and find that, although there are major uncertainties in the amplitude of future ENSO-related changes in surface temperature, this is not the main regulator of ENSOs influence on climate. Rather, nonlinear ENSO responses to mean surface global warming are the main factor, and this response is much more consistent among models, suggesting that elements of future ENSO behaviour - such as precipitation responses to El Nino - may be clearer than expected.
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