Direct and Indirect Cost-and-Benefit Assessment of Climate Adaptation Strategies for Housing for Extreme Wind Events in Queensland

摘要

The intensity of tropical cyclones and severe storms is likely to increase due to climate change. Brisbane and the northeast coast of Queensland are regions where design wind specifications may be inadequate under either current or likely future climate conditions. An appropriate adaptation strategy may be one that increases wind classifications for new houses, which leads to a reduced vulnerability of new construction. The present paper will assess the damage risks, adaptation costs, and cost-effectiveness of these adaptation measures for residential construction in Cairns, Townsville, Rockhampton, and South East Queensland, assuming time-dependent changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclonic and noncyclonic winds to 2100. Loss functions are also developed for direct and indirect losses. It was found that increasing design wind loads for new houses in Brisbane and South East Queensland will lead to a net benefit [net present value (NPV)] of up to $10.5 billion by 2100, assuming a discount rate of 4%, which includes approximately 95% of a direct benefit and 5% of an indirect benefit. The benefits are highest for Brisbane due to its large population and the high vulnerability of existing residential construction, and have a 90-100% likelihood of achieving a net benefit by 2100.