Flood-Risk Zoning Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Variable Set Theory

摘要

This study investigated torrential rain and waterlogging disasters in Henan Province combining the analytic hierarchy process method with the theory of fuzzy variable sets, and applying ArcGIS technology. The study focused on the possibility of hazard factors, sensitivity of the disaster environment, vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation, and comprehensive risk of disaster. The following conclusions were drawn. The possibility of hazard factors increased gradually from northwest to southeast, and the highest possibility of hazard factors was mainly in the southern part of Zhumadian and the northern part of Xinyang. The sensitivity of the disaster environment increased gradually from west to east. The most sensitive zones were in eastern areas where there is a relatively low topography, including Anyang, Puyang, Hebi, Shangqiu, and Zhoukou. The vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies in the east is higher than that in the west. The most vulnerable areas of disaster-bearing bodies are in Shangqiu, Kaifeng, Zhoukou, Luohe and Zhumadian in plain areas. Areas with the highest capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation are those which are economically stable. In Henan, areas located in Zhengzhou and Xuchang have high capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation, whereas hilly and mountainous areas, especially at the junction of the three cities of Sanmenxia, Luoyang, and Nanyang, have the lowest capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. From northwest to southeast, the comprehensive risk of rainstorm and flood disaster increases gradually. Xinyang, located in the southernmost part of the region, has the highest risk and belongs to the disaster-stricken high-risk area.