Sensitivity of North American Monsoon Rainfall to Multisource Sea Surface Temperatures in MM5

摘要

In this article, four continually processed sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, including the Reynolds SST (RYD), the global final analysis of skin temperature at oceans (FNL), and two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua SSTs retrieved from thermal infrared imagery (TIR) and midinfrared imagery (MIR), were compared. The results show variations from each other. In comparison with the RYD SST, the FNL data have -0.5° ～ 0.5℃ perturbations, while the TIR and MIR SSTs possess larger deviations of -2° ～ 1℃, mainly due to algorithm and/or sensor differences in these SST datasets. A regional model, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), was used to investigate whether model atmospheric predictions, especially those concerning precipitation during the North American monsoon season, are sensitive to these SST variations. A comparison of rainfall, atmospheric height, temperature, and wind fields produced by model results, reanalysis data, and observations indicates that, at monthly scale, the model shows changes in the simulations for three consecutive years; in particular, rainfall amounts, timing, and even patterns vary at some specific regions. Forced by the MODIS Aqua midinfrared SST (MIR), which includes large regions with SST values lower than the conventional Reynolds SST, the MM5 rain field predictions show reduced errors over land and oceans compared to when the model is forced by other SST data. Specifically, rainfall estimates are improved over the offshore of southern Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico, the coastal regions of southern and eastern Mexico, and the southwestern U.S. monsoon active region, but only slightly improved over the monsoon core and the high-elevated Great Plains. Using MIR SST data, one is also capable of improving geopotential height and temperature fields in comparison with the reanalysis data.