GRAIN

摘要

The scale of the anticipated rebound in US soya exports to China is set to be a key influence on freight market balances in coming months, thanks to (1) the passing of the main Brazilian soyabean export season, with the US Gulf fob price at a discount to the Brazilian equivalent at Paranagua and (2) US-to-China agricultural sales lagging the volumes agreed under January's Phase 1 trade deal. However, concerns over outbreaks of swine fever in China, plus Covid-19 and rising bilateral political tensions, pose risk factors. While the Phase 1 trade agreement signed in January envisaged an ambitious $36.5 billion of agricultural sales, by the end of the 1h20 only $7.3 billion had been concluded, newswires reported. Soyabeans are a leading candidate for additional sales, and in the past month the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported soyabean sales to China at a six-year high. As at 30 July some 2.9 Mt of soyabeans were due to be shipped to China by the start of September, though there may be some rollover of these volumes into the new trade year.